The seeds of the final draw
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November 24th, 2009
Update, December 2nd: FIFA announced the seeds.
The draw of the first stage of the World Cup 2010 will be conducted on December 4th; this draw will will determine the eight groups (with four countries each) and its distribution across the host cities.
It is well known that, like in past Cups, the draw will be somewhat directed, so as to avoid that two or three favorite countries had to face off in the first stage, so eliminating one or more of them; if it were no so, it could be possible to have a group with Spain, Brazil, Italy and England in the first stage, and only two of them would progress.
There are several rules to govern the draw, and one of the most important is the definition of the seed countries. Eight seeds will be chosen, and each will be put in a different group, so avoiding a match between them in the first stage.
Today, nobody knows which countries are seeds. In a note to the media, FIFA said:
The detailed criteria to determine the seeded teams for the Final Draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™ will be confirmed at the next meeting of the Organising Committee for the FIFA World Cup™ in Cape Town on 2 December 2009 (and announced at a press conference following the meeting).
If the criteria to determine the seeded teams were to include, as in the past, the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, then it would be the October 2009 edition of this ranking which would be considered, and this for sporting reasons. In fact, using the November 2009 edition would create an uneven situation, specifically for the European Zone, where the play-offs involving the eight best runners-up led to an imbalance in the number of qualification matches played between the teams.
So, if the ranking of October 2009 is to be used to determine the seeds, these would be: South Africa, Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Argentina and England (in case the most recent ranking of November were used, then Portugal and France would be seeds, and Argentina and England wouldn’t).
By not being a seed, it is certain for a country that they will have to face one of the major countries in one of the first three matches. It used to be the case that seeds could stay in the same host city for more time (so, with less travelling), but now that matches are dispersed across the host cities, this is no longer the case.
Probably the main advantage of being a seed is start the match knowing that you are considered one of the strongest candidates to championship.