Brazil in the World Cup 2010

The first stage of the World Cup is drawn in a way so as to spread the strongest teams evenly across each group. So, the matches which should draw more attention during this stage are probably England vs. USA, Netherlands vs. Denmark, Brazil vs. Portugal and Spain vs. Chile, thanks mostly to historic rivalries.

What can happen after this first stage?

In the 2006 World Cup, six of the eight seeds finished first in the groups stage. The two seeds which failed were Mexico (outdone by Portugal) and France (who couldn’t beat South Korea and were outperformed by Switzerland). So, it’s quite a good assumption that most seed countries finish first in their groups.

Let’s make the assumption that France will finish first in group A (the seed of his group is South Africa, but just because they are the host country – France is clearly superior; in 2006, the host which became seed was Germany, which clearly deserved it), and all other seeds finish first in the other groups.

So, the leaders of the groups stage would be, from 1A to 1H: France, Argentina, England, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Brazil and Spain.

If this happens, and given the match schedule above, in the round of 16 Brazil would play against the 2nd of group H, probably Switzerland or Chile.

If all the seeds get past this round of 16, we would have the following matches in the quarter-finals: France x England, Netherlands x Brazil, Argentina x Germany, Italy x Spain.

If Brazil wins Netherlands, then the next match would be against France or England in the semi-final, and the final match would be Brazil against Argentina, Germany, Italy or Spain.

However, Brazil is said to be in the Group of Death, which means that there are plausible chances that we finish 2nd in the group. If that happens, the situation changes completely.

Brazil and Spain, the two main favorites to win the World Cup, would face each other very early in the tournament, right after the group stage (one of these teams would go home three rounds before the final). If Brazil wins, then next would probably be Italy in the quarter-finals, Argentina or Germany in the semi-finals and the final would be against France, England, Netherlands or Portugal.

The quarter-finals, semi-finals and final matches comprise a total of 13 matches, which will sure be very thrilling.

Michael Ballack declared in an interview to German magazine Kicker that Germany is not one of the favorites too win the World Cup 2010.

Ballack, currently playing with Chelsea, is captain of the German national team, and played in the 2002 and 2006 Cups.

He said in the interview that the German team “do not have the consistency or strength in depth in the squad at the moment”, and “in friendly matches we have been too weak to be able to say that we have the class and routine to beat everybody else”; in the last three matches, Germany lost to Russia (0 x 1), tied with Finland (1 x 1) and with Ivory Coast (2 x 2).

In the first stage of the World Cup, Germany will face Australia, Serbia and Ghana; about them, Ballack said: “we have a tough group and all three opponents are uncomfortable and physically very strong”.

Does he really mean it?

Today, Germany is the 6th in the FIFA ranking. Betters put Germany as the 5th favorite to win the Cup, with odds ranging fro 10/1 to 12/1.

And more important, Germany, along with Brazil, Italy and Argentina, are the countries with most tradition in World Cups. In all the World Cup finals since the first event in 1930, at least one of these countries has been present (and in six Cups, two of them were present).

No matter how weak these countries may look before the Cup begins, they will always rank among the favorites.

Lionel Messi, from Argentina, who plays currently in Barcelona, was elected by French magazine France Football the best football player of 2009; Messi won by the widest margin ever (473 of a total of 480), leaving Cristiano Ronaldo in second place and Xavi  in third.

How does this winning relate to the chances of Argentina? Let’s take a look at past editions of the World Cup to try to find a correlation.

In 1993, FIFA player of the year was Italian Roberto Baggio. Baggio was certainly the most important player of the Italian team which finished runner-up in the 1994 World Cup.

In 1997, best player was Ronaldo (still active, but won’t be in the Brazil team 2010). In 1998, Ronaldo was the star of the Brazilian team, but had just average performance, and suffered an until today unexplained breakdown right before the final match, against France.

In 2001, best player was Portuguese Luís Figo. Much thanks to Figo, Portugal was one of the favorites to win the Cup 2002. However, Portugal was probably the greatest failure, finishing the event in 21st.

In 2005, best player was Ronaldinho (another one who won’t go to South Africa). Brazil was the absolute favorite to win in 2006. Ronaldinho and the entire team under performed, and Brazil lost.

So, there is not much correlation between a country having the best player in the World and winning the World Cup. Add to this that Messi hasn’t been showing in the Argentina team the same excellent performance he has in Barcelona (newspapers from Argentina wonders why doesn’t Messi perform in the national team?).

Now, another comparison can be made. In 1982, Argentina had hopes in a young player, Maradona, who failed; in 1986, the same Maradona, practically alone, led Argentina to the championship. In 2006, Argentina had hopes in a young player, Messi, who failed; Messi in 2010 aspires to become a new Maradona.

The movie below compares goals by Messi and Maradona.

Now that the Qualifying is over and all countries to participate in World Cup 2010 are defined, it’s time to start talk about bettings, odds, and favorites to win the World Cup.

FIFA just announced the ranking of the best countries in the year so far. Do betters agree with FIFA?

The table below shows who are favourites, according to betters of Ladbrokes, the most traditional betting house in England (table is online today, November 23rd; bets are accepted till December 4th).

According to them, Spain is the main favorite to win the World Cup, with odds of 4:1 (betters make US$ 4 for each US$ 1 they bet). Brazil is second, with slightly higher odds of 9:2 (or 4.5:1). Other relevant candidates to winning are, in order: England, Argentina, Germany, Italy, Holland, Portugal and France. Countries with the highest odds (not shown in the table above) are North Korea (350:1), Honduras and New Zealand (both with 500:1).

Below, the current betting odds at William Hill, one of the major houses in the United States. Among the top ten favorites, the only difference between Americans and British betters is at 8th and 9th position, where France and Portugal switch positions.

Below, the odds at Sports Betting, another major American house; also, no change among the top favorites:

A few remarks about these odds: all but one ex-champions are among the favorites (the only exception is Uruguay); Spain, the top favorite so far (Spain is also favorite according to other parties, such as Goal and Eurosport), is top of the FIFA rankings, current European champion, and qualified to the Cup winning ten out of ten matches (in a group which included also Turkey, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia and Armenia); Brazil, as usual, is among the top favorites (not surprisingly, as Brazil finished first in the Qualifying, with three rounds in advance); Argentina had a very difficult time to secure a slot in the Cup, but also, as usual, ranks among the favorites.

How accurate are these odds? In 2006, the absolute favorite was Brazil, but the team failed long before the finals; the same happened in 2002, when France was favorite, and in 1998, when Argentina was favorite.

The History of World Cups show that not always the favorite wins, and one of the “usual suspects” take the title.