Brazil in the World Cup 2010

FIFA announced today the Players of the Year 2009, and there were no surprises: best male player is Messi, from Argentina, and best female player is Marta, from Brazil.

In 2009, Messi helped Barcelona to be champion of Spain, Europe and the World. Messi obtained 1,073 points in votes casted by coaches and captains of 147 national teams; Cristiano Ronaldo was second with 352 points, followed by Xavi (196), Kaká (190) and Iniesta (134).

FIFA also polled 50,000 players from around the world to come up with the dream team 2009: Casillas (Spain) in goal; Daniel Alves (Brazil), Nemanja Vidic (Serbia), John Terry (England) and Patrice Evra (France) in defence; Steven Gerrard (England), Xavi (Spain) and Andres Iniesta (Spain) in midfield; and Lionel Messi (Argentina), Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) and Fernando Torres (Spain) as forwarders.

Marta was elected player of the year for the 4th consecutive year; no other player, male or female, has ever achieved such a feat. Marta spent the past seasons in Europe and USA; currently, she is playing with Santos, in Brazil (which she helped win the Brazilian League and the first edition of Libertadores da America – the South America Champions League – for women).

The movie below compares Marta to Ronaldinho, two of the most skillful Brazilian players.

Despite being acclaimed as “Pelé in skirts” in Brazil, Marta is yet to win important titles for the national team. Marta was best player of the major events she participated of, but Brazil lost the final matches of the World Cup 2007 (Germany won) and of the Olympic Games 2008 (USA won).

So, just like Brazil would need more than Marta, it also can be that Argentina will need more than Messi.

Lionel Messi, from Argentina, who plays currently in Barcelona, was elected by French magazine France Football the best football player of 2009; Messi won by the widest margin ever (473 of a total of 480), leaving Cristiano Ronaldo in second place and Xavi  in third.

How does this winning relate to the chances of Argentina? Let’s take a look at past editions of the World Cup to try to find a correlation.

In 1993, FIFA player of the year was Italian Roberto Baggio. Baggio was certainly the most important player of the Italian team which finished runner-up in the 1994 World Cup.

In 1997, best player was Ronaldo (still active, but won’t be in the Brazil team 2010). In 1998, Ronaldo was the star of the Brazilian team, but had just average performance, and suffered an until today unexplained breakdown right before the final match, against France.

In 2001, best player was Portuguese Luís Figo. Much thanks to Figo, Portugal was one of the favorites to win the Cup 2002. However, Portugal was probably the greatest failure, finishing the event in 21st.

In 2005, best player was Ronaldinho (another one who won’t go to South Africa). Brazil was the absolute favorite to win in 2006. Ronaldinho and the entire team under performed, and Brazil lost.

So, there is not much correlation between a country having the best player in the World and winning the World Cup. Add to this that Messi hasn’t been showing in the Argentina team the same excellent performance he has in Barcelona (newspapers from Argentina wonders why doesn’t Messi perform in the national team?).

Now, another comparison can be made. In 1982, Argentina had hopes in a young player, Maradona, who failed; in 1986, the same Maradona, practically alone, led Argentina to the championship. In 2006, Argentina had hopes in a young player, Messi, who failed; Messi in 2010 aspires to become a new Maradona.

The movie below compares goals by Messi and Maradona.