Brazil in the World Cup 2010

FIFA announced today the top seeds for the final draw which will happen on December 4th. The top seed countries are: South Africa (host), Brazil, Spain, Italy, Germany, England, Argentina and the Netherlands.

There was no surprise; as commented at this post, FIFA had pre-announced that the seeds would probably follow the ranking of October 2009, as it indeed happened. The reason why France is not a seed is because they ranked 9th in October, and not because of the controversial match against Ireland.

FIFA also announced the rules of the final draw.

The 32 countries will be divided in 4 pots of eight countries each.

South Africa will seed Group A. The other seeds will be put in Pot 1 and draw across the other groups (Brazil expressed preference for groups B or G).

Then, a country of each pot will be drawn to compose each group. This avoids two countries from a same pot to be placed in a same group. Also, if two countries of the same continent (excepted Europe) are drawn to the same group, the draw is repeated.

Composition of pots:

Pot 1: seed countries

Pot 2: Australia, Japan, Korea DPR (North Korea), Korea Republic (South Korea), Honduras, Mexico, USA and New Zealand.

Pot 3: Algeria, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

Pot 4: Denmark, France, Greece, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland.

Lionel Messi, from Argentina, who plays currently in Barcelona, was elected by French magazine France Football the best football player of 2009; Messi won by the widest margin ever (473 of a total of 480), leaving Cristiano Ronaldo in second place and Xavi  in third.

How does this winning relate to the chances of Argentina? Let’s take a look at past editions of the World Cup to try to find a correlation.

In 1993, FIFA player of the year was Italian Roberto Baggio. Baggio was certainly the most important player of the Italian team which finished runner-up in the 1994 World Cup.

In 1997, best player was Ronaldo (still active, but won’t be in the Brazil team 2010). In 1998, Ronaldo was the star of the Brazilian team, but had just average performance, and suffered an until today unexplained breakdown right before the final match, against France.

In 2001, best player was Portuguese Luís Figo. Much thanks to Figo, Portugal was one of the favorites to win the Cup 2002. However, Portugal was probably the greatest failure, finishing the event in 21st.

In 2005, best player was Ronaldinho (another one who won’t go to South Africa). Brazil was the absolute favorite to win in 2006. Ronaldinho and the entire team under performed, and Brazil lost.

So, there is not much correlation between a country having the best player in the World and winning the World Cup. Add to this that Messi hasn’t been showing in the Argentina team the same excellent performance he has in Barcelona (newspapers from Argentina wonders why doesn’t Messi perform in the national team?).

Now, another comparison can be made. In 1982, Argentina had hopes in a young player, Maradona, who failed; in 1986, the same Maradona, practically alone, led Argentina to the championship. In 2006, Argentina had hopes in a young player, Messi, who failed; Messi in 2010 aspires to become a new Maradona.

The movie below compares goals by Messi and Maradona.

Update, December 2nd: FIFA announced the seeds.

The  draw of the first stage of the World Cup 2010 will be conducted on December 4th; this draw will  will determine the eight groups (with four countries each) and its distribution across the host cities.

It is well known that, like in past Cups, the draw will be somewhat directed, so as to avoid that two or three favorite countries had to face off in the first stage, so eliminating one or more of them; if it were no so, it could be possible to have a group with Spain, Brazil, Italy and England in the first stage, and only two of them would progress.

There are several rules to govern the draw, and one of the most important is the definition of the seed countries. Eight seeds will be chosen, and each will be put in a different group, so avoiding a match between them in the first stage.

Today, nobody knows which countries are seeds. In a note to the media, FIFA said:

The detailed criteria to determine the seeded teams for the Final Draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™ will be confirmed at the next meeting of the Organising Committee for the FIFA World Cup™ in Cape Town on 2 December 2009 (and announced at a press conference following the meeting).

If the criteria to determine the seeded teams were to include, as in the past, the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, then it would be the October 2009 edition of this ranking which would be considered, and this for sporting reasons. In fact, using the November 2009 edition would create an uneven situation, specifically for the European Zone, where the play-offs involving the eight best runners-up led to an imbalance in the number of qualification matches played between the teams.

So, if the ranking of October 2009 is to be used to determine the seeds, these would be: South Africa, Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Argentina and England (in case the most recent ranking of November were used, then  Portugal and France would be seeds, and Argentina and England wouldn’t).

By not being a seed, it is certain for a country that they will have to face one of the major countries in one of the first three matches. It used to be the case that seeds could stay in the same host city for more time (so, with less travelling), but now that matches are dispersed across the host cities, this is no longer the case.

Probably the main advantage of being a seed is start the match knowing that you are considered one of the strongest candidates to championship.

Now that the Qualifying is over and all countries to participate in World Cup 2010 are defined, it’s time to start talk about bettings, odds, and favorites to win the World Cup.

FIFA just announced the ranking of the best countries in the year so far. Do betters agree with FIFA?

The table below shows who are favourites, according to betters of Ladbrokes, the most traditional betting house in England (table is online today, November 23rd; bets are accepted till December 4th).

According to them, Spain is the main favorite to win the World Cup, with odds of 4:1 (betters make US$ 4 for each US$ 1 they bet). Brazil is second, with slightly higher odds of 9:2 (or 4.5:1). Other relevant candidates to winning are, in order: England, Argentina, Germany, Italy, Holland, Portugal and France. Countries with the highest odds (not shown in the table above) are North Korea (350:1), Honduras and New Zealand (both with 500:1).

Below, the current betting odds at William Hill, one of the major houses in the United States. Among the top ten favorites, the only difference between Americans and British betters is at 8th and 9th position, where France and Portugal switch positions.

Below, the odds at Sports Betting, another major American house; also, no change among the top favorites:

A few remarks about these odds: all but one ex-champions are among the favorites (the only exception is Uruguay); Spain, the top favorite so far (Spain is also favorite according to other parties, such as Goal and Eurosport), is top of the FIFA rankings, current European champion, and qualified to the Cup winning ten out of ten matches (in a group which included also Turkey, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estonia and Armenia); Brazil, as usual, is among the top favorites (not surprisingly, as Brazil finished first in the Qualifying, with three rounds in advance); Argentina had a very difficult time to secure a slot in the Cup, but also, as usual, ranks among the favorites.

How accurate are these odds? In 2006, the absolute favorite was Brazil, but the team failed long before the finals; the same happened in 2002, when France was favorite, and in 1998, when Argentina was favorite.

The History of World Cups show that not always the favorite wins, and one of the “usual suspects” take the title.

A few days ago, after the last matches of the Qualifying, all 32 countries which will participate of the finals of World Cup 2010 were known. On November 20th, two days after  the end of the Qualifyings, FIFA updated its ranking of the World teams. Below, a screenshot of the 33 best ranked teams.

It is no surprise that most of the qualified countries are at the top of the ranking.

Spain regained the top position, which they occupied for most of 2009; Spain lost briefly the leading after being beat by United States in the semifinals of the Confederation Cup 2009. Brazil is back to second position; the difference between Brazil and Spain was of just three points in the previous ranking; since, Brazil won England and Oman, whereas Spain won Argentina and Austria – FIFA assigned 33 more points to the Spaniards than to the Brazilians.

Out of the ten top ranked, only Croatia (the tenth) is out of the World Cup. Between 11th and 20th, only Russia (13th) is out. Between 21st and 32th, the following countries are out: Czech Republic (23rd), Ukraine (24th), Israel (25th), Bulgaria (27th), Egypt (29th), Norway (31st) and Romania (32nd).

That means that there are nine countries which are not ranked amongst the best 32 in the world, but are going to South Africa anyway. Eight of them would be: Slovenia (33rd), Slovakia (34th), Ghana (37th), Honduras (38th), Japan (43rd), South Korea (52nd), New Zealand (77th) and North Korea (84th).

What’s the worst country (according to FIFA ranking) to participate of the World Cup in 2010? South Africa, host country, ranked 86th.

Today, November 18th 2009, Uruguay became the 32nd and last country to confirm presence in the World Cup 2010.

The following countries will play the finals of the World Cup 2010:

South Africa: host country, only pre-qualified country (until 1994 2002 – rectified, thanks to the commenter who pointed the mistake – the previous winner was also qualified  - France, winner of 1998, was the last one to benefit from this).

From Africa: Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Cameroon.

From Asia/Oceania: Japan, Australia, North Korea, South Korea, New Zealand.

From North and Central America: Honduras, USA and Mexico.

From Europe: Netherlands, Spain, England, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Serbia, Switzerland, Slovakia, Portugal, Slovenia, Greece, France.

From South America: Brazil, Paraguay, Chile, Argentina and Uruguay.

In World Cup finals, Brazil has already played against: Cameroon (1994), Algeria (1978), Japan (2006), New Zealand (1982), Australia (2006), USA (1994), Netherlands (1974, 1994, 1998), Spain (1934, 1950, 1978, 1986), England (1958, 1970, 2002), Italy (1938, 1970, 1978, 1982, 1994), Germany (1974, 2002), Switzerland (1950), Denmark (1998), Portugal (1966), France (1958, 1986, 1998, 2006), Mexico (1950, 1954, 1962), Chile (1962, 1998), Argentina (1974, 1978, 1982, 1990)  and Uruguay (1950, 1970).

Brazil also played against Yugoslavia (1930, 1950, 1954, 1974) and the Czech Republic (1938, 1962 and 1970), which later would  split and give origin to Serbia, Slovenia and Slovakia. Considering also these split-ups, none of the countries is making a first appearance in the World Cups finals.

All previous World Champions will be in South Africa. Also, all major football countries will be there, (see this comparison between countries in the Cup versus FIFA rankings).

The 32 teams will be divided into eight groups; the draw will occur on December 4th 2009. The draw will be conducted in such a way that all groups will have stronger, strong, weak and weaker countries (as per FIFA judgment).

After the draw, this blog will recall past performances of Brazil against their first three adversaries.

Buy Spain Uniform

Yesterday, Spain won Argentina by 2 x 1 in a friendly match; the Spaniards are set to finish the year with a memorable campaign (update: later on the year, Spain would earn the top position in FIFA ranking, and would be considered the top favorite to win the World Cup).

But the main star of the match wasn’t any of the teams or players: it was the introduction of the new jersey of Spain for the World Cup 2010 (the whole world want to wear the uniform of the World Cup champion).

Spain uniform is manufactured by German Adidas. The jersey maintained the predominance of red, with details in yellow and blue along shoulder, sleeve and neck areas. This shirt is paired with blue shorts.

The former Spain uniform had fine yellow vertical strips and very little blue (smaller photo).

The new uniform seems to attempt a revival of the 80s, when jerseys looked simpler.